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Q. No. 2: What impact global climate change will have on the water resources of Pakistan? How will it affect inter-provincial harmony?

  1. Introduction

Climate change is reshaping the global hydrological cycle, and Pakistan stands among the top 10 countries most vulnerable to its impacts (Germanwatch, 2023). With 93% of freshwater coming from the Indus River System, Pakistan’s agrarian economy, food security, and federal harmony are at grave risk due to water-related stresses intensified by global climate shifts.

  1. Overview: Climate Change and Water Security in Pakistan
  • Pakistan’s per capita water availability has fallen from 5,260 m³ in 1951 to under 900 m³ in 2023, nearing the water scarcity threshold (World Bank).
  • The Indus Basin, fed largely by Himalayan glaciers, is at the center of national irrigation and energy networks—making it extremely vulnerable to climate disruptions.
  • According to the Pakistan Meteorological Department (2023), average temperatures in Pakistan are rising 0.6°C per decade, accelerating glacial melt and weather volatility.
  1. Impact of Climate Change on Pakistan’s Water Resources
  2. Glacial Melt and River Flow Volatility
  • Over 7,000 glaciers in Pakistan’s north are melting at an alarming rate.
  • The Karakoram Anomaly is weakening; glaciers like Siachen and Baltoro show signs of retreat.
  • Result: Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) and unsteady river flows.
  1. Increased Frequency of Floods and Droughts
  • 2022 floods displaced over 33 million people, costing $30 billion (UNDP, 2023).
  • Sindh and Balochistan submerged; Khyber Pakhtunkhwa faced flash floods.
  • Alternating extreme droughts (Thar, Balochistan) and excessive rainfall.
  1. Declining Groundwater Reserves
  • Excessive tube-well usage in Punjab and Sindh = aquifer depletion.
  • Climate-induced water scarcity leads to over-reliance on unsafe water reserves.
  1. Altered Monsoon Patterns
  • Shifting monsoons (delayed or erratic) affect sowing seasons of wheat, rice.
  • Unpredictable rains = agricultural losses and poor water storage planning.
  1. Sea Intrusion and Delta Degradation
  • Indus Delta shrinking due to less freshwater flow; sea intrusion displaces coastal communities in Thatta, Badin.
  • Salinization affects agricultural land in lower Sindh.
  1. Water-Related Inter-Provincial Tensions

Province

Water Grievances

Sindh

Accuses Punjab of water theft, blames IRSA for unfair distribution

Punjab

Faces pressure to maintain its agriculture-based economy

Balochistan

Accuses Sindh of blocking its water share from Pat Feeder and Kirther canals

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

Complains of exclusion from major water infrastructure decisions

  1. Implications for Inter-Provincial Harmony
  • Ethno-political Fractures: Water becomes a provincial identity issue, e.g., Seraiki belt vs central Punjab.
  • Erosion of Federal Trust: Disputes over Indus River System Authority (IRSA) decisions undermine trust in federal mechanisms.
  • Urban-Rural Polarization: Karachi’s water crisis exacerbates Sindh urban-rural divide.
  • Undermines CPEC & Dam Projects: Political discord delays critical projects like Diamer-Bhasha Dam, Kachhi Canal.
  1. Recent Data and Reports
  • World Bank (2023): Pakistan could face absolute water scarcity by 2025.
  • NDMA: Climate disasters cost Pakistan >1% of GDP annually.
  • UNICEF: 70% of households use water contaminated or unsafe, linked to climate change-induced shortages.
  • Global Climate Risk Index (2023): Pakistan ranked 8th most climate-affected nation globally.
  1. Policy Recommendations
  2. National Water Charter Enforcement
  • Strengthen IRSA and implement a transparent telemetry system.
  • Revise the 1991 Water Accord based on climate realities.
  1. Build Climate-Resilient Infrastructure
  • Expedite completion of Diamer-Bhasha and Mohmand Dams.
  • Expand rainwater harvesting and micro-irrigation.
  1. Provincial Water Commissions
  • Facilitate inter-provincial water dialogue platforms.
  • Establish joint monitoring systems for canal headworks.
  1. Climate-Aware Agriculture
  • Promote climate-resilient crops and efficient irrigation (drip, pivot).
  1. International Water Diplomacy
  • Engage with China, India, and Afghanistan on transboundary river management and climate data sharing.
  1. Conclusion

Climate change is not just an environmental hazard for Pakistan—it is a federal integrity threat. As water becomes scarcer and more erratic, it fuels inter-provincial grievances and hinders national cohesion. The only way forward is a science-led, collaborative water governance model that recognizes climate threats as national security risk

Q. No. 5: Discuss the strategic contours of Indo-US evolving partnership and how will it impact Pakistan-US and Pakistan-China relations?

  1. Introduction
The Indo-US partnership, once constrained by Cold War bipolarity, has evolved into a comprehensive global strategic alliance, driven by shared interests in counterbalancing China, securing the Indo-Pacific region, and harnessing mutual technological and defense synergies. However, this evolving equation presents a diplomatic challenge for Pakistan, which now navigates a complex triangle involving the US, India, and China.
  1. Evolution of Indo-US Strategic Partnership
  • Post-2000s Pivot: The partnership accelerated post-2005 Civil Nuclear Deal, despite India being a non-NPT state.
  • Strategic Framework Agreements:
    • LEMOA (2016): Logistics exchange
    • COMCASA (2018): Communications interoperability
    • BECA (2020): Geospatial intelligence sharing
  • 2023 Modi-Biden Summit: US offered cutting-edge military tech transfer, semiconductor collaboration, and space exploration cooperation.
  1. Key Strategic Pillars of Indo-US Partnership
  2. Defense & Security Cooperation
  • India is now a ‘Major Defense Partner’ of the US.
  • Joint military exercises: Yudh Abhyas, Malabar (with Japan & Australia).
  • Increasing arms transfers and tech sharing, e.g., MQ-9B drones, F-414 jet engines.
  1. Technology & Cyber Alliances
  • AI, quantum computing, and cybersecurity part of US-India Initiative on Critical & Emerging Technology (iCET).
  • US tech giants investing in India’s digital infrastructure.
  1. Economic & Trade Ties
  • Bilateral trade exceeds $190 billion (2023).
  • Diversification of supply chains away from China, leveraging Indian market.
  1. Indo-Pacific and QUAD Strategy
  • India is central to the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD), seen as an anti-China bloc.
  • India and the US promote “Free and Open Indo-Pacific”, challenging China’s maritime influence.
  1. Impact on Pakistan-US Relations
Area Impact
Strategic Trust Deficit US now aligns more with India, reducing strategic relevance of Pakistan.
Decline in Military Aid Pakistan’s Coalition Support Fund halted, limited military cooperation.
Afghanistan Pivot Lost Post-US withdrawal from Afghanistan, Pakistan’s geo-strategic leverage weakened.
Pressure on CPEC US opposes China’s BRI and discourages Pakistan’s deepening CPEC ties.
Diplomatic Marginalization Fewer high-level US-Pakistan engagements; mostly transactional diplomacy.
  1. Impact on Pakistan-China Relations
Area Impact
Deepening of Strategic Alliance Pakistan will lean more on China for military, economic, and diplomatic support.
CPEC Reinforcement Growing Indian-US nexus compels Pakistan to double down on CPEC as economic anchor.
Military Collaboration More joint production (JF-17 Thunder Block 3, naval tech) with China.
Regional Polarization Pakistan locked into China’s camp amid rising US-China rivalry.
  1. Pakistan’s Strategic Dilemma and Diplomatic Space
  • Zero-Sum Trap: Indo-US proximity pushes Pakistan into China’s embrace—reducing room for strategic balancing.
  • Perception Problem: US policymakers increasingly view Pakistan through the China lens.
  • Technological Isolation: While India gains AI, defense, and space tech from the West, Pakistan’s access narrows.
  1. Policy Recommendations for Pakistan
  1. Strategic Realignment, Not Realignment: Avoid becoming a client state of China; pursue multi-vector diplomacy.
  2. Economic Diplomacy: Attract Western capital and tech via investment-friendly policies (e.g., IT sector, green energy).
  3. Rationalize Defense Posture: Focus on internal stability, counterterrorism, and cost-effective deterrence.
  4. Strengthen OIC & ASEAN Links: Seek non-traditional alliances beyond China/US axis.
  5. Narrative Correction in Washington: Engage in strategic lobbying to rebuild Pakistan’s regional relevance.
  1. Conclusion
The Indo-US strategic partnership is shaping new geopolitical fault lines in South Asia and beyond. While it offers India unprecedented access to Western power structures, it simultaneously limits Pakistan’s traditional space in regional diplomacy. The challenge for Pakistan is to craft a pragmatic, economically-driven foreign policy that prevents strategic isolation without antagonizing either bloc.

Q. No. 7: Discuss in detail the role of OIC, Arab League, and GCC in the Middle East crises and conflicts.

  1. Introduction
The Middle East, rich in resources but torn by ideological, sectarian, and geopolitical conflicts, has been the epicenter of global attention. Regional organizations like the OIC, Arab League, and GCC were established to foster unity, peace, and cooperation. However, their role in conflict mediation and crisis management remains contested.
  1. Overview of Middle East Crises
Conflict Core Issue Major Players
Palestine-Israel Occupation & statehood Israel, Palestine, OIC states
Syria Civil war, extremism Assad regime, rebels, Russia, Iran, US
Yemen Houthi-Saudi conflict Houthis, Saudi Arabia, Iran, GCC
Iran-Saudi rivalry Sectarian hegemony Shia Iran vs Sunni Saudi Arabia
Libya/Iraq Post-war instability Militias, foreign proxies, terrorism
  1. Mandate and Function of Organizations
  2. Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC)
  • Founded in 1969, comprising 57 Muslim-majority states.
  • Aims to safeguard and protect Muslim interests globally.
  • Lacks enforcement powers; mostly symbolic and political.
  1. Arab League
  • Founded in 1945, includes 22 Arab states.
  • Aims for Arab unity, political coordination, and economic cooperation.
  • Functions via summits, resolutions, and ministerial councils.
  1. Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)
  • Established in 1981, consists of 6 Gulf monarchies.
  • Initially focused on economic integration, later expanded to military coordination (e.g., Peninsula Shield Force).
  • Dominated by Saudi Arabia, UAE.
  1. Comparative Role in Major Middle East Conflicts
  2. Palestine-Israel Conflict
  • OIC has historically supported Palestinian statehood, condemns Israeli aggression, and funds UNRWA.
  • Arab League launched Arab Peace Initiative (2002) offering normalization for Israeli withdrawal.
  • GCC is divided: UAE and Bahrain normalized ties via Abraham Accords (2020), weakening Arab consensus.
  1. Syrian Civil War
  • Arab League suspended Syria’s membership (2011), but recently reinstated it in 2023 under reconciliation wave.
  • OIC remained largely passive, condemning violence.
  • GCC members (Saudi, Qatar) supported opposing factions, fueling internal divisions.
  1. Yemen Conflict
  • GCC initially attempted mediation (GCC Initiative, 2011) during Arab Spring.
  • Later, Saudi-led GCC coalition militarily intervened against Houthi rebels (2015).
  • OIC offered humanitarian support but had minimal diplomatic leverage.
  • Arab League endorsed Saudi efforts but failed to broker peace.
  1. Iran–Saudi Rivalry
  • OIC and Arab League leaned toward Saudi narratives.
  • However, China’s 2023 mediation led to restoration of Iran–Saudi ties, exposing regional institutions’ diplomatic weakness.
  1. Libya & Iraq
  • Arab League failed to mediate post-Gaddafi Libya, while GCC stayed disengaged.
  • Iraq’s post-2003 instability received symbolic OIC and Arab League statements, but no concrete resolutions.
  1. Successes and Failures
Organization Successes Failures
OIC Humanitarian diplomacy in Gaza; vocal global platform Weak conflict resolution role; symbolic
Arab League Arab Peace Initiative, 2023 Syria re-entry Inactive in Libya, Iraq, weak enforcement
GCC Yemen intervention coordination; economic ties Deep internal rifts (e.g., Qatar blockade 2017–2021)
  1. Challenges Facing These Organizations
  • Ideological Divisions: Sunni vs Shia politics undermine unity.
  • Leadership Rivalry: Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt compete for hegemony.
  • Foreign Influence: US, Russia, China override local mediation efforts.
  • Lack of Binding Authority: Resolutions have no enforcement mechanism.
  • Double Standards: Inconsistent support for member states’ causes.
  1. Strategic Reforms and Way Forward
  1. Charter Revisions to allow binding arbitration and conflict resolution powers.
  2. Inclusive Dialogue Mechanism: Engage Iran, Turkey, and North African actors.
  3. Regional Peacekeeping Force under OIC umbrella.
  4. Strengthen cooperation with UN, EU, African Union.
  5. Create a joint crisis response center for rapid deployment in conflict zones.
  1. Conclusion
Despite their noble mandates, the OIC, Arab League, and GCC have played inconsistent and often symbolic roles in addressing Middle East crises. Their efficacy remains limited by internal divisions, geopolitical rivalries, and lack of enforcement authority. To reclaim regional agency, these institutions must undergo strategic reform, prioritize cohesion over confrontation, and act as credible platforms for peace rather than mere spectators.

Q. No. 8: In view of the evolving global alignments and changing nature of major-power relationships, what is the future of globalism and multilateralism? Discuss with examples

  1. Introduction
The 21st century is witnessing tectonic shifts in global power structures. The unipolar world order post-Cold War, dominated by the US, is now being replaced by a multipolar configuration. This evolution has ignited debates on the fate of globalism and multilateralism, especially amid rising nationalism, strategic rivalries, and institutional fatigue.
  1. Definitions
  • Globalism: The ideological commitment to global economic integration, free trade, and cross-border cooperation.
  • Multilateralism: A governance model where multiple countries collaborate through formal institutions like the UN, WTO, WHO, and IMF to solve global problems collectively.
  1. Emerging Trends in Global Alignments
Power Bloc Key Traits
US & Allies Promoting democracy, Indo-Pacific containment of China, focus on rules-based order
China-Russia Axis Anti-Western, sovereignty-first, promoting alternatives to Bretton Woods institutions
Non-Aligned Powers (India, Brazil, Turkey) Strategic autonomy, issue-based cooperation, bridging global divides
  1. Challenges to Multilateralism
  • Great Power Rivalry: US-China tensions paralyze UN Security Council decision-making.
  • Protectionism: Rise of economic nationalism—e.g., US-China trade war, EU digital sovereignty.
  • Institutional Fatigue: WTO’s Appellate Body dysfunctional since 2019.
  • Pandemic Nationalism: COVID-19 exposed fragility of global cooperation (vaccine hoarding).
  • Climate Fragmentation: Mixed compliance with Paris Agreement; watered-down COP outcomes.
  1. Evidence of Globalism’s Resilience
  • Digital Globalism: Global internet governance, AI regulation, and cybersecurity debates are multilateral in nature.
  • Financial Integration: Despite de-dollarization trends, cross-border investment and trade remain high.
  • People-to-People Ties: Migration, education, and cultural diplomacy continue across borders.
  1. Future Trajectories: Multilateralism in a Multipolar World
Trajectory Nature
Selective Multilateralism Countries join coalitions on case-by-case basis (e.g., climate, health).
Bloc-Based Globalism Competing multilateral blocs (e.g., G7 vs. BRICS, QUAD vs. SCO)
Issue-Based Coalitions Rise of “minilateralism” – coalitions of the willing (e.g., EU Green Deal, COVAX)
Institutional Reforms Pressure to reform UN, WTO, and IMF to reflect modern power realities.
  1. Case Studies
  2. US–China–Russia Triangle
  • US-led order under stress due to China’s rise and Russia’s Ukraine war.
  • Multilateral paralysis (e.g., UNSC vetoes on Syria, Gaza, Ukraine).
  • Emergence of new alliances: AUKUS, QUAD, BRI, and Shanghai Cooperation Organization.
  1. BRICS vs G7
  • BRICS expanding to include Iran, Egypt, Saudi Arabia (2024) – aiming to challenge Western economic architecture.
  • Competing narratives of development, governance, and sovereignty.
  1. Climate Diplomacy
  • Despite nationalist trends, multilateral events like COP27 (2022) and COP28 (2023) showed renewed climate cooperation, e.g., Loss and Damage Fund.
  • Yet, action remains uneven and non-binding.
  1. Policy Recommendations
  1. Reform Global Institutions: Expand UNSC, democratize IMF and WTO governance.
  2. Build Minilateral Coalitions: Pakistan, for instance, can align with like-minded countries on climate, energy, and tech.
  3. Leverage South-South Cooperation: Promote multilateralism through OIC, ECO, and SCO.
  4. Digital Multilateralism: Frame global rules on AI, cybersecurity, and data protection.
  5. Diplomatic Revival: Use global forums (UNGA, G-77, NAM) to counterbalance great power dominance.
  1. Conclusion
Globalism is not dead—it is reconfiguring. Multilateralism, though under strain, remains indispensable in addressing transnational challenges like climate change, pandemics, cyber threats, and trade instability. The future lies in adaptive multilateralism, anchored in inclusive reform, regional balancing, and coalition-building across divides.

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