Q.2: Prospective Foreign Policy Options for Pakistan in the Wake of the Russian Invasion of Ukraine (Feb 2022)
- Introduction
The Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022 redefined global geopolitics, reawakening Cold War-style bloc politics. As global powers realign, Pakistan faces a challenging environment marked by economic vulnerabilities, regional instability, and strategic autonomy dilemmas. Pakistan’s foreign policy must now strike a delicate balance between Western expectations, Chinese strategic partnership, and a cautiously developing relationship with Russia.
- Overview of the Russia–Ukraine Conflict
- Russia’s military intervention was framed as a response to NATO expansion and Ukrainian pro-Western tilt.
- The West responded with:
- Sweeping sanctions on Russia
- Military and financial aid to Ukraine
- Renewed emphasis on Western alliances (NATO, G7)
- Resulted in:
- Global food, fuel, and fertilizer crises
- Polarization in international forums (UNGA, UNSC)
- Pakistan’s Current Foreign Policy Posture
| Area | Position |
| Russia | Avoided outright condemnation; pursued economic & energy talks |
| West (USA/EU) | Strategic ties with IMF, FATF cooperation, diaspora relations |
| China | All-weather partnership (CPEC, BRI) remains core foreign policy pillar |
| Ukraine | Support for territorial sovereignty in UNGA resolutions (abstentions/votes vary) |
Pakistan’s neutrality is largely pragmatic, aimed at economic survival and strategic autonomy.
- Strategic Dilemmas for Pakistan
- Dependency on Western institutions (IMF, World Bank)
- Strategic proximity to China, but potential to benefit from Russian oil/gas discounts
- Desire to engage in multipolar diplomacy, but limited bandwidth due to internal political instability and weak economic fundamentals
- Prospective Foreign Policy Options
- Diplomatic Balancing
- Maintain non-aligned diplomacy with a UN Charter–based neutrality.
- Vote selectively in multilateral forums to avoid alienating either Russia or the West.
- Support mediation and peace efforts within the OIC and SCO frameworks.
- Economic Pragmatism
- Negotiate energy deals with Russia, especially discounted oil and LNG (as seen with India).
- Diversify trade partners to include Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) members.
- Protect access to Western markets and remittances while cautiously expanding Eastern linkages.
- Strategic Hedging
- Avoid over-commitment to either axis.
- Enhance defense diplomacy with Turkey, Iran, and Central Asian states to reduce dependence on Western arms or Chinese vetoes.
- Energy & Connectivity Diplomacy
- Leverage CPEC to connect Russia and CARs to the Arabian Sea via Gwadar.
- Join regional energy projects (e.g., Pakistan Stream Gas Pipeline, CASA-1000) with Russian cooperation but avoid violating sanctions regimes.
- Multilateral Rebalancing
- Increase active participation in:
- Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO)
- Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO)
- OIC Contact Group on Ukraine Crisis
- Challenges in Policy Realignment
| Challenge | Explanation |
| Economic Constraints | Reliance on IMF limits foreign policy maneuvering. |
| Western Pressures | Possible diplomatic cost of Russian outreach. |
| Internal Political Instability | Lack of consensus hinders consistent policy articulation. |
| Energy Diplomacy Risks | U.S. and EU sanctions could deter Russian deals. |
- Conclusion
Pakistan’s foreign policy in the wake of the Russia–Ukraine war must be principled, but pragmatic. It should uphold sovereignty and international law, yet seek economic self-interest and strategic diversification. The best path forward is multi-vector diplomacy, where Pakistan nurtures regional connectivity, pursues energy security, and avoids becoming collateral in renewed great power rivalries.
Q.3: The 2021 Taliban Takeover of Afghanistan – Policies, Regional and Global Response
- Introduction
- Overview of the 2021 Taliban Takeover
- The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan was re-declared after two decades of U.S.-backed democracy.
- Taliban seized power with little resistance after the Ghani government collapsed.
- The Doha Agreement (2020) was instrumental in paving the way for U.S. withdrawal.
- Anticipated Policies of the Taliban Government
| Domain | Policy Direction |
| Governance | Theocratic model based on Deobandi-Islamic Emirate; absence of elected democratic structures. |
| Human Rights | Severe restrictions on women’s rights, including bans on female education beyond Grade 6, jobs, and public participation. |
| Security | Claims to combat ISIS-K, but provides safe haven to groups like TTP and Al-Qaeda. |
| Foreign Policy | Pursues recognition, economic aid, and neutral diplomacy with neighbors; resists Western conditions. |
| Economic Management | Dependent on UN humanitarian aid, informal trade, and opium economy; struggling with banking isolation. |
- Regional Responses
- Pakistan
- Initially supportive due to historical ties and desire for strategic depth.
- Faces blowback due to TTP resurgence from Afghan soil.
- Advocates for inclusive government, peace, and cross-border trade.
- China
- Pragmatic engagement with Taliban; eyeing rare-earth access, Belt & Road expansion, and curbing ETIM extremism.
- Signed tentative mining agreements and maintained Kabul embassy.
- Iran
- Deeply cautious; concerned over Sunni extremism, Hazara Shia persecution, and refugee influx.
- Engages via consular ties and hosted intra-Afghan dialogue.
- India
- Initially alarmed; had invested heavily in Afghan infrastructure under the previous regime.
- Gradually resumed humanitarian assistance, reopened embassy, and keeps security vigil on terror spillovers.
- Russia & Central Asia
- Concerns over ISIS-K and heroin trafficking.
- Conducted military drills in Tajikistan and engages Taliban diplomatically without formal recognition.
- Global Response
| Entity | Stance |
| United States | Withdrawn militarily, but influential via financial sanctions, frozen reserves ($7 billion), and counterterrorism surveillance. |
| European Union | Focused on humanitarian aid, women’s rights, and diplomatic conditionality. No recognition granted. |
| United Nations | Operates UNAMA mission, offers humanitarian support, but stresses human rights compliance. |
| OIC | Attempts to mediate and provide Islamic legitimacy-based aid, especially after bans on women’s education/work. |
- Key Challenges
| Challenge | Details |
| Lack of Recognition | No country formally recognizes the Taliban government. |
| Terror Sanctuaries | Taliban failure to act against TTP, Al-Qaeda, and ISIS-K destabilizes the region. |
| Humanitarian Crisis | Over 28 million Afghans need aid; 90% population under poverty line (UNDP). |
| Women’s Rights | Near-total erasure of female public life; global backlash ongoing. |
| Illicit Economy | Opium trade continues to thrive; funds insurgencies and mafia networks. |
- Conclusion
Q4: US–Russia Strategic Deterrence under the New START Treaty (2021) and Its Implications for Pakistan’s Nuclear Programme ________________________________________
- Introduction
- Understanding the New START Treaty (2021 Extension)
| Component | Description |
| Signatories | United States & Russian Federation |
| Limits | 1,550 deployed strategic warheads; 700 deployed launchers (ICBMs, SLBMs, bombers) |
| Verification | On-site inspections, telemetry exchanges, and notifications |
| Validity | Extended on Feb 3, 2021, until Feb 4, 2026 (5 years) |
- Impact on US–Russia Strategic Nuclear Deterrence
- Stability Through Predictability
- The treaty caps nuclear competition, preventing a full-blown arms race.
- Encourages strategic dialogue amid rising tensions (e.g., Ukraine War, NATO expansion).
- Mutual Trust & Verification
- Re-establishes confidence-building measures, though inspections were paused during COVID-19 and later due to the Russia–Ukraine conflict.
- Limitation, Not Disarmament
- It does not limit tactical nuclear weapons or newer hypersonic systems (e.g., Avangard, Burevestnik).
- Extended Relevance
- Treaty sets precedent for future talks (though currently suspended as of 2023–24 due to Ukraine crisis).
- Evolving Strategic Stability: Key Prospects
| Possibility | Impact |
| Breakdown of Treaty | Risk of unconstrained buildup; collapse of strategic restraint mechanisms |
| Multilateral Expansion | Potential future inclusion of China, India, Pakistan, etc., in broader frameworks |
| Modernization Race | Pushes non-signatory states to maintain parity via technological upgrades |
- Implications for Global Non-Proliferation Norms
- Double standards persist: NPT-recognized powers like the US and Russia are allowed arsenals, while others (e.g., Pakistan, Israel) face pressure.
- Pakistan views such treaties as exclusive, potentially cementing nuclear apartheid.
- Nonetheless, such treaties shape norms, which Pakistan must monitor to avoid diplomatic isolation.
- Implications for Pakistan’s Nuclear Programme
- Deterrence Posture & Defence Doctrine
- Pakistan follows a minimum credible deterrence (MCD) doctrine in response to India’s conventional and nuclear buildup.
- India’s development of ballistic missile defence (BMD) and submarine-based second strike capability compels Pakistan to retain strategic flexibility.
- Tactical Nuclear Weapons (TNWs)
- Unlike New START’s focus on strategic weapons, Pakistan emphasizes short-range nuclear delivery systems (e.g., Nasr) to counter India’s Cold Start doctrine.
- Such posture could become controversial in expanded arms control regimes.
- Strategic Autonomy vs Global Pressure
- If global regimes evolve post-New START to include threshold states (India, Pakistan, Israel), Pakistan may face pressure to:
- Cap arsenal size
- Accept fissile material cut-off
- Join international verification
- Risk of Discriminatory Inclusion
- Western states may push India into a future arms control regime while excluding Pakistan—posing risks of strategic imbalance and parity erosion.
- Conclusion
Q.5: Disunity in the Muslim Ummah – Causes and Pragmatic Pathways to Unity ________________________________________
- Introduction
- Present State of the Muslim Ummah
- Comprises over 1.9 billion people in more than 50 countries.
- Rich in natural resources (oil, gas, minerals) yet underrepresented in global power structures.
- Witnesses ongoing crises in Palestine, Syria, Yemen, Libya, Sudan, and Kashmir.
- Key Causes of Disunity
- Political Fragmentation
- Competing national interests and authoritarian regimes make cooperation difficult.
- Absence of a collective political vision (like EU or ASEAN).
- Leadership Vacuum
- Lack of a charismatic, visionary, and consensus-based leader accepted across regions (Middle East, South Asia, Africa).
- Sectarianism
- Sunni-Shia, Arab-Persian, and ethnic divides exacerbate conflicts (e.g., Saudi-Iran rivalry, intra-Shia tensions in Iraq, Bahrain, Lebanon).
- Geopolitical Rivalries
- Rival blocs within the Ummah: Saudi-led bloc, Iranian axis, Turkish-Qatari partnership.
- Dependency on Western military alliances and arms procurement weakens independent policy stances.
- Institutional Weakness
- The OIC, meant to be the political voice of Muslims, lacks legal authority, political will, and financial independence.
- Impact of Disunity
| Area | Impact |
| Palestine Issue | No unified stance; fragmented support for resistance or peace processes. |
| Kashmir Issue | Rarely prioritized in joint Muslim agendas. |
| Global Forums (UN, IMF, G20) | Lack of a unified bloc weakens bargaining power. |
| Socioeconomic Development | 60% of world’s refugees come from Muslim countries (UNHCR, 2023). |
| Perception of Islam | Global Islamophobia rises unchecked due to absence of collective diplomatic strategy. |
- Ways and Means to Unite the Muslim Ummah (Pragmatic Approach)
- Leadership Reforms and Neutral Mediation
- Encourage countries like Turkey, Malaysia, Pakistan, and Indonesia to act as neutral mediators between rival Muslim states.
- Shift from monarchy-driven alliances to people-centric diplomacy.
- Revival of the OIC
- Reform the OIC Charter to allow:
- Decision-making powers
- Joint military and humanitarian responses
- Binding economic coordination (e.g., joint sanctions, boycotts)
- Economic Integration
- Create a Muslim Free Trade Zone (MFTZ) and enhance intra-OIC trade.
- Launch a joint investment fund for crisis-affected Muslim nations (e.g., Sudan, Palestine, Yemen).
- Counter-Sectarian & Counter-Extremism Narratives
- Promote a universal Islamic narrative of tolerance via joint religious declarations.
- Establish regional councils of ulema from all sects to diffuse ideological extremism.
- Education, Science & Media Cooperation
- Launch joint academic networks and Pan-Islamic research institutes.
- Create a unified media platform (e.g., OIC News Channel) to counter Islamophobia and Western bias.
- Joint Foreign Policy Stances
- Establish an OIC Permanent Seat in the UN General Assembly to coordinate Muslim responses on:
- Palestine
- Islamophobia (e.g., Quran burning in Sweden)
- Rohingya & Kashmir issues
- Role of Pakistan
- Act as a bridge-builder among competing blocs.
- Continue playing mediatory roles (e.g., Pakistan’s role in Saudi-Iran thaw brokered by China).
- Lead Islamic financial, scientific, and climate diplomacy initiatives.
- Conclusion
Q6: Proposing a Practical Political System for Good Governance in Pakistan
- Introduction
- Historical Overview of Political Experiments
| System | Period | Outcome |
| Parliamentary | 1947–1958, 1973–1977, 2008–present | Political instability, coalition fragility, executive confusion |
| Presidential | 1958–1971 (Ayub), 1977–1988 (Zia), 2000–2008 (Musharraf) | Authoritarianism, overcentralization, weak democratic culture |
| Hybrid (De facto) | Post-18th Amendment | Conflict between PM, President, and Establishment |
- Structural Weaknesses of Past Systems
- Frequent no-confidence motions
- Weak local government systems
- Personality cults over institutions
- Civil-military power imbalance
- Judicial overreach and inconsistent legal frameworks
- Proposed System: Hybrid Parliamentary-Presidential Model
- Key Features
| Institution | Role |
| President (Directly Elected) | Head of State and Executive; appoints key posts with parliamentary oversight; term limit of 5 years (max 2 terms) |
| Prime Minister (From Parliament) | Head of Government; oversees day-to-day governance and policy legislation |
| Parliament (Bicameral) | Legislative oversight, budget approval, confidence votes |
| Constitutional Council | Institutional watchdog to prevent abuse of presidential powers (includes opposition, judiciary, military observers) |
- Institutional Safeguards
- Fixed four-year term for assemblies and executives
- Mandatory mid-term performance review by an independent commission
- Run-off elections for presidential seat to ensure broad mandate
- Revival of Local Government System with constitutional protection
- Appointment of technocrats in critical ministries (e.g., finance, climate, planning)
- Balance of Power
- President handles foreign affairs, security, and emergency powers
- PM leads domestic development, education, health, and legislative agenda
- Judiciary retains oversight via constitutional courts for inter-institutional disputes
- Conditions for Successful Implementation
- Consensus-Building among major political parties (PPP, PML-N, PTI, others)
- Constitutional Amendment through 2/3rd majority in Parliament
- Civil-Military Code of Conduct defining clear civilian supremacy
- Electoral Reforms including EVMs, transparent funding, and independent ECP
- Devolution of Power to provinces and union councils via fiscal reforms
- Merit-Based Bureaucracy through civil service modernization
- Advantages Over Existing Models
| Issue | Existing System | Proposed System |
| Political Instability | Frequent breakdowns | Direct presidential mandate ensures continuity |
| Executive Gridlock | Conflicts between PM and President | Role clarity prevents turf wars |
| Poor Local Governance | Delayed LG elections | LGs constitutionally protected |
| Lack of Accountability | Party-dominated legislatures | Separation of policy and administration |
| Military Interference | Weak civilian leadership | Balance of executive strength ensures deterrence |
- Conclusion
Q7: The Emerging World Order – Cold War 2.0? A Triangular Power Dynamic between US, China, and Russia
- Introduction
- US-China Trade War as Prelude to Strategic Rivalry
| Year | Key Events |
| 2018 | US imposes tariffs on $250 billion of Chinese goods |
| 2019 | Huawei banned from US markets |
| 2020–2022 | Tech decoupling accelerates; 5G, semiconductors, AI restrictions |
| 2023–2024 | AUKUS, CHIPS Act, TikTok bans, Taiwan tensions |
| 2024–2025 | Continued sanctions on semiconductors and strategic exports to China |
- Cold War 2.0: Concept and Parallels
| Classic Cold War (1947–1991) | New Cold War (Post-2018) |
| US vs. USSR | US vs. China & Russia |
| Ideological: Capitalism vs Communism | Strategic: Liberal Order vs Authoritarian Capitalism |
| Arms Race, Proxy Wars | Tech Race, Economic Sanctions, Cyber Wars |
| NATO vs Warsaw Pact | NATO/QUAD vs SCO/BRICS |
| Berlin/Taiwan flashpoints | Taiwan, Ukraine, South China Sea |
- Role of Main Actors
- United States
- Leading the rules-based liberal order.
- Strategic objectives: Contain China’s rise, weaken Russian aggression, retain Western leadership.
- Tools: Sanctions, military alliances (NATO, AUKUS), technological restrictions, financial leverage (SWIFT, IMF, World Bank).
- China
- Seeking to replace the US as the economic hegemon by mid-21st century.
- Strategy:
- Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) for geo-economic influence.
- Yuan internationalization and dedollarization efforts.
- Expansion of BRICS+, digital silk road, and AI leadership.
- Russia
- Acts as a revisionist military power.
- Challenging Western dominance via:
- Ukraine invasion, gas diplomacy in Europe.
- Strategic partnerships with China, Iran, and African states.
- Weaponizing energy and cyber operations.
- Emerging Characteristics of the Future World Order
| Feature | Description |
| Multi-Polarism | No single global hegemon; power shared among US, China, Russia, EU, and regional blocs. |
| Geo-Techno Politics | Nations fight over AI, quantum computing, 5G, and semiconductors instead of nuclear arms. |
| Currency War | Rise of Yuan, BRICS currency proposal, and dedollarization campaigns threaten US dollar dominance. |
| Bloc Formation | Economic and security blocs solidify (QUAD, AUKUS vs BRICS+, SCO). |
| Proxy Zones | Taiwan, Ukraine, South China Sea, and Africa become zones of confrontation. |
- Possible Global Alignments
| Bloc | Core States | Interests |
| US-led West | US, EU, Japan, Australia | Maintain status quo, NATO expansion, democratic values |
| China-Russia Axis | China, Russia, Iran, Belarus | Redefine world order, reduce US influence |
| Emerging Middle | Turkey, India, Brazil, ASEAN | Strategic autonomy, issue-based alliances |
- Implications for Global South and Pakistan
- Pakistan likely to lean toward China, but must balance ties with the West.
- May benefit from economic diversification (BRI), but risks being caught in a new Great Power game.
- Strategic autonomy and regional cooperation (e.g., via SCO, ECO) must guide Pakistan’s diplomacy.
- Conclusion
Q.8: Write Short Notes on the Following (10 Marks Each)
- a) Poverty & Trade in South Asia and the Role of SAARC
- Income inequality, rural underdevelopment, and lack of social safety nets
- High vulnerability to climate shocks and political instability
- COVID-19 exacerbated unemployment and informal sector fragility
- Intra-regional trade is less than 5% of total trade (compared to ~25% in ASEAN).
- Tariff and non-tariff barriers restrict economic potential.
- SAARC (founded 1985) was envisioned to boost regional cooperation, including trade, poverty alleviation, and cultural exchange.
- Key initiatives:
- SAFTA (South Asian Free Trade Area): underperforming due to India-Pakistan tensions
- Poverty Alleviation Programs (SAPAP): limited impact due to low funding and weak implementation
- Autocratic and Strategic: Centralizes authority under “Xi Jinping Thought.”
- Long-Term Vision: Projects like Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Made in China 2025.
- Party Supremacy: Emphasizes loyalty to the Communist Party; purged rivals.
- Assertive Diplomacy: Wolf warrior stance, focus on Indo-Pacific dominance.
- Democratic and Consensus-Oriented: Relies on coalition-building domestically and internationally.
- Restorationist Agenda: “America is back” – reviving alliances (NATO, QUAD).
- Institutional Respect: Balances presidential powers with judiciary, Congress.
- Social Reformer: Focus on climate, infrastructure, and racial equity.
| Trait | Xi Jinping | Joe Biden |
| Style | Commanding | Collaborative |
| Governance | Centralized | Decentralized |
| Focus | Tech/military rise | Global norms/democracy |
| Diplomacy | Assertive | Restorative |
- Qatar’s Soft Power: First Muslim and Arab nation to host; challenged Western stereotypes.
- Arab Solidarity Displayed: Widespread support for Palestine during matches (e.g., Moroccan fans waving Palestinian flags).
- Criticism from the West:
- Human rights concerns (migrant labor, LGBTQ+ issues)
- Qatar responded with assertions of cultural sovereignty
- The tournament fostered a rare moment of unity among Arab states post-2017 GCC blockade.
- Countries like Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Morocco used the global platform to rebrand themselves as modern, capable hosts of global events.
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