Q2. What are the multidimensional and multifaceted impacts of climate change on multiple dimensions of security? Identify each, discuss and analyze under the theoretical framework of Security and International Relations.
Outline
- Introduction
- Defining Climate Change and Security
- Multidimensional Impacts on Security
- State Security
- Human Security
- Economic Security
- Food Security
- Water Security
- Energy Security
- Geopolitical and Regional Stability
- Theoretical Framework
- Case Study: Pakistan 2022 Floods
- Policy Implications
- Conclusion
- Table: Dimensions of Climate-Security Nexus
- Introduction
Climate change is not just an environmental issue; it is a threat multiplier that disrupts ecosystems, governance structures, and economic systems. It transcends borders and undermines state sovereignty, societal resilience, and global peace. The 21st-century understanding of security has evolved from territorial threats to encompass non-traditional threats, and climate change lies at the epicenter of this evolution.
“Climate change is the defining issue of our time.” — António Guterres, UN Secretary-General
- Defining Climate Change and Security
- Climate change refers to long-term shifts in temperatures and weather patterns, mainly due to human activities such as fossil fuel burning.
- Security in international relations now encompasses:
- Traditional state-centric security (sovereignty, borders)
- Non-traditional security (health, water, food, migration, economic, environmental)
- Multidimensional Impacts on Security
- State Security
- Increased resource competition (e.g., water between India–Pakistan; Nile dispute)
- Fragile states become ungovernable due to environmental stress
- Militaries are being diverted to climate disaster responses
- Displacement creates security vacuums (e.g., Sahel region)
“Climate change poses a serious threat to international peace and security.” — UN Security Council (2021)
- Human Security
- Defined by the UNDP as freedom from fear and want
- Climate disasters increase mortality, disease, and displacement
- Vulnerable groups—women, children, poor—are disproportionately affected
- Climate-induced migration may reach 216 million people by 2050 (World Bank)
- Economic Security
- Agriculture, industry, and tourism face direct shocks
- Estimated GDP loss for Pakistan due to climate change: 9.1% by 2050 (ADB, 2021)
- Insurance markets collapse in disaster-prone regions
- Climate risk affects FDI, trade, and development aid patterns
- Food Security
- Erratic rainfall and temperature change affect crop yields
- Locust swarms in East Africa and Pakistan (2020) linked to climate patterns
- Global cereal production projected to decline by 13–22% by 2050 (FAO)
- Farmers face livelihood crises → protests, migration, unrest
- Water Security
- Melting glaciers and receding aquifers in Himalayan region
- Pakistan: per capita water availability fell from 5000 m³ (1947) to 1000 m³ (2024)
- Increased inter-provincial and transboundary water disputes
- Water becomes a geostrategic asset (Kabul River, Indus Basin)
- Energy Security
- Hydropower disruption due to glacial retreat
- Heatwaves increase energy demand while damaging infrastructure
- Oil-producing countries face transition risks in decarbonized future
- Global shift toward green energy geopolitics
- Geopolitical and Regional Stability
- Arctic melt opens up new shipping lanes and resource competition
- South Asia’s vulnerability to sea-level rise and glacier melt could cause mass migration
- Island nations face existential threat (e.g., Maldives, Tuvalu)
- Climate is now a factor in strategic alliances and aid diplomacy
- Theoretical Framework
- Environmental Security Theory
- Security must include biosphere protection, not just territorial defense
- Climate change threatens core national interests
- Human Security Approach
- UNDP (1994): emphasizes people-centered security
- Climate change is a direct attack on health, livelihood, dignity
- Realism vs. Liberalism
Theory | Position on Climate Security |
Realism | Downplays climate unless it threatens sovereignty or military capability |
Liberalism | Emphasizes international cooperation, environmental regimes (e.g., Paris Agreement) |
- Constructivism
- Climate is a socially constructed threat reshaping national identities, diplomacy, and power roles
- Rise of green foreign policy (e.g., EU Green Deal)
- Case Study: Pakistan’s 2022 Floods
- Affected 33 million people, killed over 1,700, displaced 8 million+
- Economic losses: $30 billion+
- Led to food inflation, rural poverty, and internal displacement
- Highlighted need for climate-adaptive governance
“We are victims of something we didn’t cause. This is climate injustice.” – Sherry Rehman, Pakistan’s Climate Minister (2022)
- Policy Implications
- Climate diplomacy must be part of national security strategy
- Invest in resilient infrastructure, early warning systems, green technologies
- Create regional climate security frameworks (SAARC, SCO, OIC)
- Elevate climate risk assessment in military planning and budgeting
- Conclusion
The multifaceted impacts of climate change demand a redefinition of security in the 21st century. No longer confined to missiles and borders, security now includes rising seas, falling yields, and dying rivers. Pakistan and other vulnerable nations must integrate climate resilience into national security doctrines, while IR scholars and policymakers must move beyond traditional paradigms to address the looming ecological disruption.
“You cannot build a wall against climate change.” — Barack Obama
- Table: Dimensions of Climate-Security Nexus
Security Dimension | Climate Impact | Example |
State Security | Conflict over resources | Nile, Indus basin |
Human Security | Disease, displacement | 2022 floods in Pakistan |
Economic Security | GDP loss, trade collapse | Locust swarms, floods |
Food Security | Reduced yields, hunger | Syria (drought) |
Water Security | Scarcity, river disputes | Kabul & Indus rivers |
Energy Security | Hydropower disruption | Himalayas’ glacial retreat |
Geopolitical Security | Migration, Arctic race | Island nations, polar competition |
Q3. What are the four essentials of Resource Management? When does a resource become an element of power or a resource curse? Discuss the Reko Diq case in this context.
Outline
- Introduction
- Defining Resource Management
- Four Essentials of Resource Management
- Resource as an Element of Power
- Resource as a Curse
- When the Transition Happens
- Case Study: Reko Diq (Pakistan)
- Theoretical Interpretation
- Policy Lessons
- Conclusion
- Visual Aid – Table: Resource as Power vs. Resource as Curse
- Introduction
Natural resources, if effectively managed, can drive economic growth, enhance state power, and fuel strategic autonomy. However, if misgoverned, they can lead to corruption, conflict, debt, and underdevelopment—a phenomenon known as the “resource curse.” The Reko Diq gold and copper reserves in Pakistan exemplify this dual potential and highlight the centrality of governance in determining whether a resource becomes a blessing or a burden.
- Defining Resource Management
Resource Management refers to the strategic planning, development, utilization, and conservation of a nation’s natural assets—minerals, energy, water, land—for long-term, sustainable national benefit. It requires a careful balance between economic goals, environmental integrity, and sovereign control.
- Four Essentials of Resource Management
Essential | Explanation |
1. Sovereign Control | The state must have legal and policy mechanisms to exercise full authority over its resources, free from coercion or undue foreign influence. |
2. Transparent Governance | Clear regulatory frameworks, anti-corruption measures, and public accountability are vital for fair distribution and long-term investment. |
3. Strategic Planning | Resources must be integrated into national development goals with proper environmental, legal, and social assessments. |
4. Equitable Benefit Sharing | Local populations must benefit through employment, royalties, infrastructure, and compensation to avoid unrest or alienation. |
“It’s not the presence of resources, but the presence of institutions that determines whether a resource is a blessing or a curse.” — Paul Collier
- Resource as an Element of Power
Resources can enhance national power when:
- Used to drive industrialization (e.g., Gulf oil economies, Chilean copper)
- Help gain strategic leverage (e.g., Russia’s gas diplomacy in Europe)
- Create employment and FDI (e.g., Australia’s mining sector)
- Strengthen soft power via energy diplomacy (e.g., Saudi Arabia)
- Resource as a Curse
Also called the “Paradox of Plenty”, a resource curse arises when:
- Corruption undermines democratic institutions
- Overreliance on one sector leads to Dutch Disease (currency inflation)
- Extractive firms exploit communities without local benefit
- Conflicts erupt over royalties, land, or environmental degradation
- Legal missteps trigger international litigations
“Oil is the excrement of the devil.” — Juan Pablo Pérez Alfonzo, founder of OPEC
- When Does the Transition Happen?
Turning Point | Leads To Power | Leads To Curse |
Transparent contracts | Stable investment | Investor-state disputes |
Institutional strength | Industrial growth | Rent-seeking elite capture |
Public participation | Local prosperity | Social unrest, insurgency |
Strategic export policy | Leverage in foreign policy | Exploited by foreign cartels |
- Case Study: Reko Diq (Pakistan)
⚒️ What is Reko Diq?
- Located in Chagai District, Balochistan
- Contains world’s 5th largest untapped reserves of gold and copper
- Valued at ~$260 billion
- Originally awarded to Tethyan Copper Company (TCC), a joint venture of Barrick Gold (Canada) and Antofagasta (Chile)
⚖️ Legal Dispute:
- In 2011, Pakistan Supreme Court nullified the agreement citing transparency issues
- TCC filed a case at the ICSID (World Bank tribunal)
- In 2019, Pakistan was fined $6 billion—one of the largest international arbitration awards
💡 Resolution:
- In 2022, PM Imran Khan’s government restructured the deal with Barrick Gold
- Pakistan regained 50% ownership, with $10 billion investment and job creation promises
- Emphasis on local benefit: 25% of profits to Balochistan, 10% employment quota
🇵🇰 National Implications:
- Reko Diq became a test case for Pakistan’s resource governance, federalism, and investor trust
- Highlights center-province tensions in resource sharing
- Serves as a blueprint for future resource contracts
“Reko Diq is not just a mine. It’s a symbol of how we must manage our future wealth.” — Shaukat Tarin (Finance Minister, 2022)
- Theoretical Interpretation
- Neo-Realism
- States pursue power to ensure survival
- Resources like Reko Diq increase strategic autonomy and bargaining power
- Dependency Theory
- Warns against foreign control over natural resources
- Reko Diq’s initial dispute showed risks of neocolonial arrangements
- Resource Nationalism
- The desire to retain domestic control and local benefit from natural wealth
- Pakistan’s 2022 renegotiation embodies this shift
- Political Ecology
- Intersects environment, development, and power
- Reko Diq’s ecological impact on Balochistan must be factored into long-term planning
- Policy Lessons for Pakistan
- Institutional reforms must precede exploitation
- Establish an Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) chapter
- Build negotiation capacity to avoid foreign-dominated contracts
- Create Balochistan-specific benefit-sharing law
- Set up Resource Sovereign Wealth Fund to invest proceeds in health, education, and infrastructure
- Conclusion
Resources like Reko Diq can fuel national greatness or national grievance. The determining factor lies not in geology, but in governance, planning, and equity. With strong institutions, public trust, and smart diplomacy, Pakistan can turn its mineral wealth into strategic and developmental power. Without it, the same wealth may provoke litigation, insurgency, and poverty—the very signs of a resource curse.
“In the global South, natural wealth too often becomes national weakness. Pakistan must break that chain.” — Dr. Akbar Zaidi
- Visual Aid: Resource as Power vs. Resource as Curse
Criteria | Element of Power | Resource Curse |
Governance | Transparent, rule-based | Corrupt, opaque |
Ownership | Sovereign + public-private equity | Foreign dominated or elite capture |
Local Benefit | Employment, royalties, CSR | Displacement, pollution, marginalization |
Legal Framework | Clear and enforceable contracts | Disputes and ICSID litigation |
Use of Revenue | Invested in development | Used for patronage and debt servicing |
Q4. Why is it difficult to define terrorism? Elaborate upon the following: (a) Feminization of terrorism (b) Criminalization of terrorism (c) Commercialization of terrorism (d) State-terrorism
Outline
- Introduction
- Why Terrorism Is Hard to Define
- UN & Scholarly Attempts at Definition
- Feminization of Terrorism
- Criminalization of Terrorism
- Commercialization of Terrorism
- State Terrorism
- Theoretical Approaches
- Conclusion
- Comparative Table: Typologies of Terrorism
- Introduction
Terrorism is one of the most contested concepts in international relations. It has been described as a tactic, a strategy, a crime, a holy duty, or even a legitimate resistance depending on the lens of the observer. The term has been used to delegitimize opposition, rally public opinion, and justify military intervention. Yet, despite thousands of deaths, volumes of literature, and decades of warfare, there exists no universally accepted definition of terrorism.
“One man’s terrorist is another man’s freedom fighter.” — Gerald Seymour, Harry’s Game (1975)
- Why Terrorism Is Hard to Define
- Subjectivity and Political Bias
States often define terrorism based on national interest, leading to inconsistency. E.g., the U.S. supported Afghan Mujahideen in the 1980s, labeling them “freedom fighters,” yet the same actors were later branded as “terrorists.”
- Overlap with Other Forms of Violence
Terrorism overlaps with guerrilla warfare, civil resistance, organized crime, and revolution. These blurred lines make typological clarity difficult.
- Power Asymmetry and State Narratives
Powerful states often exclude state-sponsored or state-perpetrated violence from the definition, focusing only on non-state actors.
- Legal and Cultural Variation
The UN has failed to develop a comprehensive convention due to disagreement on whether national liberation movements (e.g., Palestine) should be exempt from the “terrorist” label.
- UN and Scholarly Definitions
- UN (2004): “Any act intended to cause death or serious injury to civilians… when the purpose is to intimidate a population or compel a government.”
- Bruce Hoffman (2006): Terrorism is “violence designed to have far-reaching psychological effects beyond the immediate victim.”
- Alex Schmid (1988): Terrorism = “Peacetime equivalent of war crimes.”
- Feminization of Terrorism
Feminization of terrorism refers to the growing presence, portrayal, and participation of women in terrorist activities, and how these are gendered in analysis.
- Participation of Women
- Black Widows (Chechnya)
- LTTE “Birds of Freedom” (Sri Lanka)
- ISIS recruiters like Shamima Begum
“When women kill, the world looks twice.” — Dr. Mia Bloom, Bombshell: Women and Terrorism (2011)
- Symbolic Use
Women are often used for shock value, to break security assumptions, or gain media attention. Their passivity is exploited for strategic gain.
- Gendered Narratives
- Male terrorists are viewed as ideological actors
- Female terrorists are often seen as “manipulated victims”, reducing agency
- Criminalization of Terrorism
This process involves classifying political violence as a criminal offense rather than as an act of war or resistance.
- Depoliticization
By treating terrorism as ordinary crime, states seek to avoid giving it legitimacy.
Example: EU and U.S. anti-terror laws place terrorism under criminal justice, not international law.
- Extraordinary Legal Frameworks
- Patriot Act (USA, 2001) allows for detention without charge
- Terrorism Act (UK) permits preemptive arrests
- Pakistan’s Anti-Terrorism Act (ATA, 1997) enables speedy trials
- Implications
- Due process is often sidelined
- Creates conflict with human rights norms
- Delegitimizes freedom struggles (e.g., Kashmir, Palestine)
- Commercialization of Terrorism
This refers to how terrorism becomes a business, involving both terror groups and counter-terror actors.
- Terror Financing Networks
- ISIS used oil sales, antiquity smuggling, and ransom
- Al-Qaeda raised funds via hawala, charities, and illicit gold
- Terrorism as Economic Enterprise
- TTP charges “protection money” from businesses
- Boko Haram engages in human trafficking and weapons smuggling
- Counter-terrorism Industry
- Rise of private security firms, surveillance technologies, and intelligence contractors
- Estimated global counter-terrorism market: $100+ billion annually
- Media Profiteering
- Terror attacks are sensationalized for TRPs
- Creates a cycle of fear-consumption
- State Terrorism
This involves state-sponsored or state-perpetrated terror against foreign or domestic populations.
- Targeting Civilians
- Drones, chemical weapons, police brutality
- Example: U.S. use of drones in Pakistan and Yemen; over 400 civilian deaths (Bureau of Investigative Journalism)
- Suppression of Dissent
- Myanmar’s military crackdown on Rohingya Muslims
- India’s brutality in Kashmir: pellet guns, communication blackouts
- Proxy Warfare
- Iran supports Hezbollah
- Saudi Arabia’s actions in Yemen
- Legal Evasion
States often escape prosecution due to sovereign immunity, UN veto power, and hegemonic narratives
“State terrorism is often more lethal than the terror of non-state actors.” — Noam Chomsky
- Theoretical Frameworks
- Constructivism
- Terrorism is a social construct shaped by media, discourse, and power
- Labels are politically motivated, not universal
- Critical Terrorism Studies
- Questions state narratives and seeks to “decolonize” terrorism studies
- Emphasizes structural violence, colonial histories, and power asymmetries
- Realism
- Sees terrorism as a tool of asymmetric warfare
- States prioritize interest and survival over legal norms
- Conclusion
Terrorism remains difficult to define because it is intertwined with politics, identity, law, and power. Its forms—whether through gender roles, criminal codes, commercial channels, or state actions—highlight its complex, evolving nature. A universal definition is unlikely unless states agree to introspect and hold all forms of terror accountable, regardless of the perpetrator.
“Until we recognize terror in all its faces—including the state—we will never achieve justice.” — Prof. Richard Jackson
- Comparative Table: Typologies of Terrorism
Form | Key Characteristics | Examples |
Feminization | Women as actors and symbols in terror | LTTE, ISIS, Chechnya |
Criminalization | Legal framing as crime vs. political act | ATA (Pakistan), Patriot Act (USA) |
Commercialization | Economic profit from terror or its counter | ISIS oil trade, Blackwater contracts |
State Terrorism | State uses force on civilians or backs terror groups | US drones, Indian acts in Kashmir |
Q.5: Differentiate between Washington Consensus and Beijing Consensus. Is Beijing Consensus a challenge to the Washington Consensus?
Outline
- Introduction
- The Washington Consensus: Origins and Features
- The Beijing Consensus: Origins and Features
- Comparative Analysis
- Beijing Consensus as a Challenge
- Theoretical Implications
- Global Reception and Case Studies
- Pakistan’s Position
- Conclusion
- Table: Washington vs. Beijing Consensus
- Introduction
In the evolving global economic order, the clash between the Washington Consensus and the Beijing Consensus has become symbolic of a deeper ideological divide: liberal democratic capitalism vs. state-led authoritarian capitalism. The rise of China and the increasing popularity of its development model in the Global South has raised serious questions about the viability and universality of Western-style neoliberalism.
“The Washington Consensus has failed to address inequality. The Beijing Consensus fills that void.” — Joshua Ramo, The Beijing Consensus (2004)
- The Washington Consensus: Origins and Features
Coined by John Williamson in 1989, the Washington Consensus refers to the set of neoliberal policy prescriptions promoted by the IMF, World Bank, and US Treasury primarily for Latin American and developing countries facing debt crises.
Core Principles:
- Fiscal discipline
- Trade liberalization
- Deregulation
- Privatization
- Competitive exchange rates
- Tax reform (broad-based and growth-oriented)
- Secure property rights
- Redirection of public spending toward health and education
- Financial liberalization
- Openness to FDI
“Markets know best. Governments should step aside.” – Washington Consensus mantra
- The Beijing Consensus: Origins and Features
Coined by Joshua Cooper Ramo in 2004, the Beijing Consensus emerged as a non-Western development model drawing from China’s experience. It offers a pragmatic, state-led alternative to neoliberalism—focused on sovereignty, experimentation, and gradualism.
Core Principles:
- Incremental reforms with experimentation
- State control of strategic sectors (SOEs)
- Authoritarian governance with economic liberalization
- Innovation-driven development, not just liberalization
- Emphasis on stability and social harmony over rapid democratization
- Respect for sovereignty (non-interventionist foreign aid)
- Comparative Analysis
Criteria | Washington Consensus | Beijing Consensus |
Ideology | Neoliberalism | State capitalism |
Governance | Liberal democracy | Authoritarian or hybrid regimes |
Role of State | Minimalist | Active steering and intervention |
Economic Focus | Market-led growth | Innovation + state-led industrialization |
Global Influence | West-led institutions (IMF, WB) | BRI, AIIB, China Development Bank |
Conditionality | Political (e.g., human rights) | No strings attached |
Approach to Reforms | Shock therapy | Gradualism |
Development Aid Model | Top-down, structural adjustment | Infrastructure-led, demand-based assistance |
- Is the Beijing Consensus a Challenge to the Washington Consensus?
Yes — the Beijing Consensus poses a direct challenge to the Washington model, particularly in the Global South, for several reasons:
- Ideological Alternative
- Beijing Consensus offers a non-Western, non-democratic path to development, appealing to regimes unwilling to undergo political liberalization.
- Development Success Story
- China’s record: Over 800 million people lifted out of poverty, GDP growth averaging 9–10% for three decades, global tech leaders like Huawei and BYD
- Infrastructure Diplomacy
- Through BRI, China has signed projects in over 140 countries, offering an alternative to IMF’s austerity-laden aid.
- Strategic Autonomy
- Beijing Consensus allows states to preserve sovereignty, unlike IMF programs that impose intrusive reforms.
“China’s development model may not be replicable, but it is certainly influential.” — Amartya Sen
- Theoretical Implications in IR
Liberalism
- Washington Consensus rooted in liberal economic theory: free markets, global trade, institutional multilateralism.
Realism
- Beijing Consensus reflects realist assumptions: states pursue power, sovereignty, and strategic interests, not just liberal values.
Developmental State Theory
- Beijing Consensus aligns with the East Asian Tigers (South Korea, Taiwan), where the state guided rapid industrialization.
Post-colonialism
- It offers a decolonized narrative of development, challenging Western economic prescriptions.
- Global Reception & Case Studies
- Africa
- Many African countries (e.g., Ethiopia, Angola) prefer China’s infrastructure-first approach over IMF’s fiscal discipline.
- Latin America
- Countries like Venezuela and Bolivia criticized the Washington Consensus for exacerbating inequality and turned to state-centric models.
- Southeast Asia
- Vietnam and Laos follow modified Beijing models: market socialism with one-party control.
- Pakistan
- Faces a dichotomy: IMF bailouts vs. CPEC investment
- Beijing Consensus more appealing due to non-conditionality and infrastructure investment
- But governance and debt transparency issues persist
“CPEC is not just a project. It’s a vision of development that rejects austerity.” – Asad Umar, Former Planning Minister
- Pakistan’s Position
Pakistan is a textbook example of a state straddling both models:
Washington Consensus Impact | Beijing Consensus Influence |
23 IMF programs since 1958 | $62+ billion in CPEC investments |
Structural reforms in tax, trade | Infrastructure-led growth |
Conditionalities & austerity | Sovereignty-respecting loans |
Rising inequality, elite capture | Connectivity and energy development |
Pakistan must balance conditional economic reform with sovereign-led planning, integrating lessons from both frameworks.
- Conclusion
The Beijing Consensus is not merely an economic model—it is a strategic alternative to the Western liberal order. While it doesn’t promise democratic governance, it appeals to states seeking rapid growth, political control, and infrastructure development. Its rise marks a paradigm shift in global political economy—especially for the Global South—posing a credible challenge to the once-dominant Washington Consensus. However, its success hinges on whether it can ensure long-term sustainability, inclusivity, and institutional maturity.
“Development is not one-size-fits-all. The Beijing Consensus reminds us that there are many roads to prosperity.” — Kishore Mahbubani
- Comparative Table: Washington vs. Beijing Consensus
Feature | Washington Consensus | Beijing Consensus |
Ideology | Neoliberalism | Authoritarian capitalism |
Development Strategy | Structural adjustment & liberalization | Infrastructure-first, state-led |
Political Model | Democracy with rule of law | Party control, state-driven reform |
Conditionality | High (human rights, governance) | Low or none |
Institutional Base | IMF, World Bank, WTO | BRI, AIIB, Silk Road Fund |
Reception in Global South | Mixed; often resented | Increasingly popular |
Criticism | Austerity, social cuts | Debt trap, lack of transparency |
Q.6: Comment in detail on the mechanism of conflict resolution between Pakistan and Afghanistan and on the Durand Line issue.
Outline
- Introduction
- Historical Context of Pakistan–Afghanistan Relations
- The Durand Line Issue
- Nature and Roots of Conflict
- Mechanisms of Conflict Resolution
- Bilateral
- Regional
- International
- Informal/Track II
- Recent Developments and Challenges
- IR Theoretical Perspectives
- The Way Forward
- Conclusion
- Visual Aid: Mechanisms of Conflict Resolution (Table)
- Introduction
The relationship between Pakistan and Afghanistan has been historically strained, marked by territorial disputes, ideological differences, and mutual mistrust. One of the most persistent issues has been the Durand Line, which Afghanistan has refused to recognize as the official border. Despite multiple conflict resolution efforts—ranging from bilateral dialogue to regional diplomacy—peace remains fragile. The evolving regional dynamics post-US withdrawal have further tested the prospects for long-term normalization.
- Historical Context of Pakistan–Afghanistan Relations
- In 1947, Afghanistan was the only country to oppose Pakistan’s entry into the UN, citing concerns over Pashtun territories.
- The roots of mistrust go back to the 1893 Durand Agreement signed between British India and Afghanistan’s Amir Abdur Rahman.
- Afghanistan has historically supported Pashtunistan claims and provided refuge to Baloch and Pashtun insurgents.
- Pakistan, in turn, has been accused of supporting Taliban factions, especially during the 1990s and post-2001 insurgency.
- The Durand Line Issue
- Historical Background
- Signed in 1893, the Durand Line demarcates the 2,640 km border between British India and Afghanistan.
- It was reaffirmed in 1905, 1919 (Treaty of Rawalpindi), and 1930—yet post-1947 Afghanistan has refused to accept it as an international border.
- Afghanistan’s Claim
- Afghanistan argues the agreement was imposed and expired after the British exit from India.
- It also sees the Pashtun areas in Pakistan (FATA, KP) as ethnic extensions of Afghan Pashtuns.
- Pakistan’s Position
- Considers the Durand Line final and settled as per international law, recognized under the Vienna Convention on Succession of States.
“The Durand Line is a settled international border. Reopening it is not only illegal but dangerous.” – Sartaj Aziz, Former NSA of Pakistan
- Nature and Roots of Conflict
Source of Tension | Description |
Territorial Disputes | Afghanistan’s non-recognition of Durand Line |
Cross-Border Terrorism | Mutual accusations of harboring militants |
Ethno-Nationalism | Pashtun nationalism spilling over borders |
Refugee Crisis | Hosting over 1.4 million Afghan refugees |
Drug Trade & Smuggling | Porous border used for narcotics and arms trade |
Proxy Rivalries | Taliban (Pakistan-influenced) vs. Kabul governments |
- Mechanisms of Conflict Resolution
- Bilateral Diplomacy
- Jirga Diplomacy:
- Traditional assemblies like the Pak-Afghan Jirgas (2007–08) attempted mutual dialogue but lacked enforcement power.
- High-Level Dialogues:
- Regular bilateral talks via APAPPS (Afghanistan-Pakistan Action Plan for Peace and Solidarity, 2018).
- Multiple visits by DG ISI, NSA, FM to Kabul and Doha.
- Military Confidence-Building:
- Construction of border fencing (90% completed) and border crossings regulation (e.g., Torkham).
- Regional Platforms
- SCO-Afghanistan Contact Group
- Heart of Asia-Istanbul Process
- Quadrilateral Coordination Group (QCG) – U.S., China, Pakistan, Afghanistan
- Moscow Format – Inclusive regional dialogue on Taliban
- International Engagement
- UNHCR & IOM coordinate refugee return and humanitarian aid
- UNAMA facilitates peacebuilding and local governance
- ICRC & humanitarian NGOs de-escalate tensions at border crossings
- Track II Diplomacy
- NGOs, think tanks, and tribal elders hold people-to-people dialogue
- PAJC (Pak-Afghan Joint Committee) led by USIP and PIPS
- Student exchanges and tribal delegations across Chaman, Khyber
- Recent Developments and Challenges
- Post-US Withdrawal (2021): Pakistan welcomed Taliban 2.0 hoping for reduced Indian influence and better border security.
- Instead, cross-border attacks by TTP surged—over 165 Pakistani soldiers killed in 2022–23, according to ISPR.
- Taliban’s reluctance to act against TTP and their Pashtun kinship affinity challenge Pakistan’s expectations.
- Pakistan started mass deportation of undocumented Afghans in 2023, triggering diplomatic backlash.
- Taliban refuses to formally recognize Durand Line, often pulling down fences.
“If the Taliban will not recognize the Durand Line, how can we guarantee regional stability?” – Lt Gen (R) Amjad Shoaib, defense analyst
- IR Theoretical Perspective
- Realism
- Both states pursue national interests and strategic depth.
- Taliban views Pakistan with suspicion, especially due to past patronage and now pressure.
- Constructivism
- The conflict is shaped by identity, historical memory, and Pashtun nationalism.
- Durand Line is not just a border, but a symbol of ethnic fragmentation.
- Conflict Resolution Theory
- Resolution requires acknowledging deep-rooted narratives, not just treaties.
- Inclusive dialogue must involve local actors, tribal leaders, and women.
- The Way Forward
Strategy | Description |
Border Agreement | Formal UN-supervised agreement on Durand Line |
Joint TTP Operations | Intelligence sharing and counter-militancy pact |
Trade Corridors | Expand transit trade and legal crossings |
Refugee Management | Gradual repatriation with international support |
Education and Tribal Engagement | Cross-border youth and jirga integration |
“Peace with Afghanistan is not a luxury—it’s a strategic necessity for Pakistan.” – Moeed Yusuf, Former NSA
- Conclusion
The Durand Line remains both a cartographic boundary and an ideological divide. While bilateral and regional diplomacy have made intermittent gains, the absence of mutual recognition, trust, and clarity on TTP sanctuaries continues to erode progress. Conflict resolution must go beyond state-centric diplomacy, involving local communities, credible mediators, and international frameworks. A stable Afghanistan is in Pakistan’s vital interest—and resolving these issues is critical for long-term regional peace.
- Visual Aid – Conflict Resolution Mechanisms
Type | Mechanism | Effectiveness |
Bilateral | Jirgas, APAPPS, border talks | Limited without follow-up |
Regional | SCO, Heart of Asia, Moscow Format | Useful but not binding |
International | UNAMA, UNHCR, ICJ framework | Helps on humanitarian side |
Informal/Track II | Tribal diplomacy, youth forums | Promising but underused |
Q7: Discuss Russia’s return to South Asia and United States’ Indo-Pacific Strategy.
Outline
- Introduction
- Russia’s Return to South Asia: Strategic Resurgence
- Key Elements of U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy
- Overlapping Strategic Spheres: Convergence and Competition
- Implications for South Asian States
- India
- Pakistan
- Afghanistan
- China
- Theoretical Perspectives
- Strategic Forecast: Multipolarity or Bipolarity?
- Conclusion
- Comparative Table: Russia’s Return vs U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy
- Introduction
The geopolitical architecture of South Asia is undergoing a fundamental transformation. Russia, long overshadowed in the region post-Cold War, is reasserting its influence, while the United States is aggressively pushing its Indo-Pacific Strategy to counterbalance China’s assertiveness. This dual engagement has intensified the strategic chessboard of South Asia, with states like India, Pakistan, and Afghanistan navigating a delicate balance between the two powers.
“Geopolitics never dies. It simply reinvents itself.” — Henry Kissinger
- Russia’s Return to South Asia: Strategic Resurgence
After the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan in 1989, Russia’s influence in South Asia waned, particularly with the rise of U.S.–India strategic partnership post-2000. However, under President Vladimir Putin, Russia has strategically re-engaged the region to:
- Counterbalance U.S. Dominance
- Russia views U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy as a containment tool against China (its strategic partner) and by extension, Russia.
- Strengthen Military Ties
- India–Russia BrahMos Missile Deal, S-400 Triumf air defense systems
- First Russia–Pakistan military exercise (Druzhba) held in 2016 and continued yearly
- Energy Diplomacy
- Russia has increased oil exports to India and Pakistan at discounted rates post-Ukraine war (India imports >40% of oil from Russia in 2023)
- Afghanistan Engagement
- Hosted Moscow Format Talks with Pakistan, China, Taliban, and Iran
- Russia seeks regional security architecture without Western presence
“South Asia is not America’s backyard alone. Russia has vital stakes here too.” — Sergey Lavrov, Russian FM
- Key Elements of U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy
The Indo-Pacific Strategy, rearticulated under President Joe Biden in February 2022, aims to create a free, open, connected, resilient, and secure Indo-Pacific region.
Key Elements:
- Strengthening Alliances
- QUAD (U.S., India, Japan, Australia)
- AUKUS (Australia, UK, U.S.)
- Countering China’s Assertiveness
- Challenging China’s BRI, South China Sea claims, and tech dominance
- Economic Integration
- IPEF (Indo-Pacific Economic Framework) launched to provide a non-BRI alternative
- Maritime Security
- Freedom of navigation operations (FONOPs) in the Indo-Pacific
- Technology & Cybersecurity Cooperation
- Anti-Huawei push; supply chain diversification
- India’s Strategic Role
- India is viewed as a lynchpin in U.S. efforts to counter China
“The future of the 21st century will be written in the Indo-Pacific.” – Joe Biden, Feb 2022
- Overlapping Strategic Spheres: Convergence and Competition
Factor | Russia’s Approach | U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy |
Focus | Eurasia + South Asia | Indo-Pacific (Asia-Pacific + Indian Ocean) |
Main Adversary | NATO, U.S. | China |
Regional Partner | China, India (strategic autonomy) | India (balancing China) |
View on Multilateralism | Multipolarism | Liberal institutionalism |
Engagement Style | Arms trade, security forums | Alliances, economic frameworks |
- Implications for South Asian States
- India
- Deepening ties with both Russia and the U.S.
- Importing Russian energy despite Western sanctions
- QUAD member, yet abstains from anti-Russia UN resolutions
- Pursuing “strategic autonomy”
- Pakistan
- Historically U.S.-aligned, now diversifying via China and renewed ties with Russia
- Engaged in military drills with Russia
- Benefiting from Russia’s oil exports
- Concerned about U.S.–India military closeness
“Pakistan seeks a balanced foreign policy. The U.S.–India nexus and Indo-Pacific containment concern us.” — Bilawal Bhutto Zardari (2022)
- Afghanistan
- Both Russia and U.S. have failed to achieve long-term stability
- Russia working with Taliban regime post-2021
- U.S. disengaged but watches regional counter-terrorism dynamics
- China
- Sees Indo-Pacific strategy as an encirclement attempt
- Backed by Russia in opposing U.S. presence in Asia
- Closer ties with Pakistan and Central Asian states
- Theoretical Perspectives
- Realism
- States act to maximize power and security; Russia and U.S. both pursuing strategic dominance.
- Neorealism (Structural Realism)
- The global power structure (unipolar → multipolar) is shaping regional alignments.
- Russia–China axis vs. U.S.–India–Japan configuration.
- Constructivism
- Competing strategic narratives: “Free Indo-Pacific” vs. “Neo-imperial encirclement”
- Identity and historical experience shape regional state behavior (India’s NAM legacy, Pakistan’s mistrust of U.S.)
- Strategic Forecast: Multipolarity or Bipolarity?
- The return of Russia to South Asia is creating a multipolar order with shifting loyalties.
- The U.S. seeks to shape rules, but countries like India and Pakistan prefer multi-alignment.
- ASEAN, Central Asia, and South Asia are emerging as “swing regions” in this competition.
- Conclusion
Russia’s strategic return to South Asia and the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy reflect a global realignment in progress. South Asia is no longer a passive buffer zone but a pivotal strategic theatre. While the U.S. offers partnerships anchored in democratic ideals and economic frameworks, Russia’s appeal lies in defense cooperation, energy diplomacy, and multipolar rhetoric. For countries like Pakistan and India, the challenge is not just to choose sides, but to preserve autonomy while maximizing strategic gains in a rapidly polarizing world.
“We are living through a new Great Game. But this time, the pieces are smarter—and the stakes, higher.” — Dr. C. Raja Mohan, Indian strategic thinker
- Comparative Table: Russia’s Return vs U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy
Feature | Russia | United States |
Main Goal | Counter NATO and U.S. hegemony | Contain China, secure Indo-Pacific |
Key Partners | China, India (non-aligned), Pakistan (emerging) | India, Japan, Australia, ASEAN |
Engagement Mechanisms | Arms sales, energy, SCO, Moscow Talks | QUAD, AUKUS, IPEF, Freedom of Navigation |
Core Strategy | Eurasian multipolarism | Indo-Pacific liberal order |
Strategic Impact on Region | Diversifies partnerships | Strengthens U.S.–India alignment |
Long-Term Risk | U.S. sanctions, Ukraine fallout | Over-militarization, strategic overreach |
Q8: Explain the following diagram in the light of Multi-Track Diplomacy. Which is the most important track of diplomacy and why?
Outline
- Introduction
- Concept of Multi-Track Diplomacy (MTD)
- Explanation of Each Track
- Interdependence Among Tracks
- Theoretical Underpinning
- Case Studies and Examples
- Most Important Track – Critical Justification
- Conclusion
- Table: Nine Tracks of Multi-Track Diplomacy
- Introduction
In today’s globalized world, diplomacy has evolved far beyond formal government negotiations. Conflicts are multidimensional, and so must be their solutions. The concept of Multi-Track Diplomacy (MTD), developed by Joseph Montville and later expanded by Dr. Louise Diamond and John McDonald, reflects this holistic approach, integrating state and non-state actors in peacebuilding processes.
“No single actor can own peace; it is a collaborative enterprise.” – John McDonald
- Concept of Multi-Track Diplomacy
MTD expands the classical Track-I diplomacy—which is state-centric—to a network of nine interconnected tracks. Each track represents a layer of societal engagement, acknowledging the fact that peace is sustained not just in treaty rooms but also in classrooms, communities, boardrooms, and even pulpits.
- Explanation of Each Track
Track | Actor(s) | Function | Example |
Track 1 | Government | Official diplomacy, treaties, negotiations | UN Summits, Foreign Ministries, Peace Accords |
Track 2 | Professional Conflict Resolution | NGOs, academics, experts facilitating resolution | USIP, Conciliation Resources |
Track 3 | Business | Economic diplomacy, investment, trade | G2B Forums, Pakistan-India Commerce Summits |
Track 4 | Private Citizens | People-to-people diplomacy, cross-border relationships | Aman ki Asha, student exchanges |
Track 5 | Research, Training & Education | Universities, think tanks, training peace professionals | ISSI, PIPS, Pak Institute for Conflict Studies |
Track 6 | Peace Activism | Social movements, protests, civil resistance | Aurat March, PTM, Black Lives Matter |
Track 7 | Religion | Faith leaders promoting interfaith dialogue | Pope-Francis-Imam Azhar joint declarations |
Track 8 | Funding | Donors, philanthropists, development agencies | USAID, DFID, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
Track 9 | Media and Public Opinion | Journalists, media houses, digital activism | Al Jazeera, Dawn, TRT World |
- Interdependence Among Tracks
These tracks are interlinked and mutually reinforcing. For example, Track 5 (Education) feeds into Track 2 (Conflict Resolution) by training mediators, while Track 9 (Media) shapes perceptions of Track 1 (Government) negotiations.
“Think of these tracks as spokes of a wheel—if one breaks, the entire process may falter.” – Dr. Louise Diamond
- Theoretical Underpinning: Conflict Transformation
MTD is best understood through the lens of John Paul Lederach’s Conflict Transformation Theory:
- Horizontal integration: multi-actor, multi-level engagement
- Vertical transformation: from elite-level diplomacy to grassroots initiatives
- Emphasizes the long-term change of relationships and systems, not just ceasefires
- Case Studies & Examples
- Pakistan–India Relations
- Track 1: Simla Agreement, Composite Dialogue
- Track 2: Pugwash India-Pakistan dialogue, U.S.-led backchannel contacts
- Track 3: Federation of Chambers of Commerce interactions
- Track 4: Aman ki Asha, cross-border marriages
- Track 9: NDTV–Geo collaboration for promoting peace narratives
- Afghanistan Peace Process
- Track 1: Doha Talks between U.S., Taliban, and later Afghan Govt
- Track 2: Involvement of Norwegian, Qatari mediation efforts
- Track 4–5: Tribal jirgas, women’s forums, religious scholar fatwas
- Track 8: UNAMA, World Bank funding for stabilization programs
- Most Important Track: Track 1 (Government Diplomacy)
While all tracks are vital, Track 1 remains the most impactful for five key reasons:
- Mandate and Legitimacy
- Governments negotiate binding treaties; no other track can initiate war or peace formally
- Institutional Power
- Only state actors can impose sanctions, deploy forces, or pass international laws (UNSC, WTO)
- Resource Mobilization
- Government ministries direct development budgets, aid, and international cooperation agendas
- Gatekeeping Role
- Governments enable or restrict civil society, business, or media diplomacy
- Security Assurance
- Only governments can guarantee security guarantees, ceasefires, and border agreements
“Track 1 may not always succeed alone, but no sustainable peace can exist without it.” – Dr. Chester Crocker
- Conclusion
Multi-Track Diplomacy represents a modern, layered understanding of conflict resolution—one that is inclusive, diversified, and resilient. However, among the web of engagements, Track 1 diplomacy remains central due to its authority, resources, and capacity to formalize peace. It serves as both initiator and consolidator of outcomes from other tracks. Nevertheless, in fragile societies like South Asia, the synergy of all tracks is indispensable for lasting peace.
- Visual Aid: Summary Table – Nine Tracks of Multi-Track Diplomacy
Track | Sector | Role in Diplomacy |
1 | Government | Treaty-making, statecraft |
2 | Conflict Resolution | Mediation, dialogue platforms |
3 | Business | Economic peacebuilding, CSR |
4 | Citizen Engagement | Person-to-person peace networks |
5 | Research & Education | Training next-gen peacebuilders |
6 | Activism | Voice of the marginalized, pressure groups |
7 | Religion | Faith-based reconciliation |
8 | Funding | Supporting long-term peace infrastructure |
9 | Media & Public Opinion | Narrative shaping, agenda setting |
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